Continuing almost two decades of tradition, our experts have made 10 Outrageous Predictions for the year ahead. Their consensus-smashing forecasts would send shockwaves through the markets, if they come to pass. So will they prove pure fantasy or visions of reality?
Engines of Disruption
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1. Chips go cold in AI winter
Diminishing returns on chip applications sees the SOX Index of semiconductor stocks collapse 50%.
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2. Stagflation rewards value over growth
The iShares MSCCI World Value Factor ETF outperforms the FANGs by 25%.
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3. ECB folds and hikes rates
European banks make a comeback as the EuroStoxx bank index rises 30%.
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4. In energy, green is not the new black
The green revolution gets a reality-check as dirty energy starts to pay once again.
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5. South Africa gets electrocuted by ESKOM debt
USDZAR rises from 15 to 20 as world cuts credit lines to the rainbow nation.
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6. Trump announces America First Tax
A 25% tax on all foreign-derived revenue scrambles supply lines and pushes inflation higher.
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7. Sweden breaks bad
Sweden’s pragmatic attitude shift leads to a massive increase in fiscal spending that drives up the SEK.
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8. Dems win clean sweep in 2020 election
Democrats take control of the presidency and both houses of congress. Big healthcare and pharma stocks collapse 50%.
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9. Hungary leaves the EU
HUF collapses to EURHUF 375 as Hungary’s leadership and the EU fight over the country’s place in the Union.
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10. Asia launches digital reserve currency
An Asian, AIIB-backed, digital reserve currency tanks the US dollar by 30% versus gold.
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